Domestic production is expanding in Europe and America, and Chinese manufacturers are being squeezed out.
According to Fuji Keizai (Chuo-ku, Tokyo), the global solar panel market in 2024 is expected to reach 690GW, up 40.5% from 2023.
This was analyzed in the 2024 edition of the Current Status and Future Prospects of Solar Cell-Related Markets and Technologies, released on September 13. The global solar cell market in 2024 (January to December) is expected to reach 14,185.5 billion yen, down 5.8% from 2023 in value terms, and 690GW, up 40.5% from 2023. By 2040, the market is expected to increase by 44.9 points to 21,826.1 billion yen, or 2.3 times to 1,118 GW, expanding to 1TW in size and a market size of over 20 trillion yen, supported by growing global demand.
The reason for the lower sales volume in value terms in 2024 is due to the rapid increase in solar cell production, which has led to oversupply and a sharp decline in selling prices. On the other hand, the production base is performing well, with more than 40% year-on-year growth from 2022 onwards. In the short term, there will be instability in the supply-demand balance, falling prices and industry restructuring towards large companies, but we expect demand to continue to increase and the market to expand.
The movement away from China and toward domestic production is growing in many countries. In the United States, investment in manufacturing equipment has increased after the IRA (Inflation Control Act) was enacted in August 2022, and domestic production is also being promoted in Europe. In the medium and long term, the proportion of products made outside China is expected to increase, Chinese manufacturers will be eliminated and consolidated, and prices will increase.
By type, by 2023, more than 90% of products in terms of value will be crystalline silicon, and they are expected to continue to dominate the market. By 2022, P-type cells (power generation elements) accounted for about 80%, but N-type cells are expected to increase to about 70% by 2024. N-type has advantages such as high conversion efficiency, low power generation loss at high temperatures, and high power generation under low light conditions, and major Chinese manufacturers are rapidly shifting production to N-type.
In addition, the thin-film system market focusing on perovskite solar cells is expected to be fully formed from 2030 onwards and will increase to about 20% of the market by 2040. In the future, perovskites will account for more than 10% of the total solar cell market and will promote the development of thin-film solar cells. It is expected to be applied to the construction of material-integrated solar cells (BIPV), automotive applications and IoT device applications, and expectations are particularly high for the development of solar panels with conversion efficiency above 30% using a tandem structure of perovskite and crystalline silicon.
On the other hand, the domestic solar PV market in fiscal 2024 (April-March) will be 243 billion yen, down 13.5% from fiscal 2023 (of which only a small amount is new and next-generation solar PV) and 6,860 MW (outlook is 6.86 MW), down 11.6% from fiscal 2023. In fiscal 2040, it is forecast to decrease 24.4% year-on-year to 212.4 billion yen (including 25 billion yen for new and next-generation solar PV) and increase 11.6% to 8,660 MW (8.66GW).
Residential demand is expected to continue to grow in fiscal 2024 due to increased demand due to rising electricity prices, sales of packages with ZEH (zero-energy homes) and battery storage systems, and the popularity of PPAs (on-site power purchase agreements). From April 2025, the installation of solar panels in newly built homes in Tokyo is expected to become mandatory, and local government measures to promote the use of solar panels will provide a boost. However, in the long term, the market is expected to shrink due to a decrease in construction starts due to a decline in population.
For non-residential use, the backlog of feed-in tariff (FIT) projects and new acquisitions will decline in FY2024, while deliveries for projects of 500kW or larger will slow. The decline is expected to continue on both a monetary and volume basis until around 2026. However, the market is expected to expand in the future as production volumes increase, leading to lower unit costs and higher electricity prices, resulting in greater savings, and as the demand for carbon neutrality increases.
For new and next-generation solar cells, dye-sensitized solar cells and organic thin-film solar cells will be sold experimentally, and some will be commercialized from 2024. Perovskite solar cells, expected to be commercialized after 2025, still have problems with durability and manufacturing technology, but they can be used to replace existing solar cells in BIPV and building-mounted solar cells (BAPV), and combined with crystalline silicon. If mass production of the tandem type is successful, it is expected to expand the market rapidly.
In addition, in the domestic market, solar parking lots (solar power equipment for parking lots) are expected to increase 4.3% year-on-year to 36 billion yen in FY2024 and 2.8 times to 96.2 billion yen in FY2040. BIPV is expected to increase 0.5% year-on-year to 95.7 billion yen in FY2024 and 154.4 billion yen in FY2040, up 62.2% year-on-year. Vertical solar power generation is expected to double in FY2024 to 200 million yen and 85 times to 8.5 billion yen in FY2040.
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