The Construction Economics Research Institute and the Economic Research Institute announced the latest estimates on construction investment on the 10th. The total investment amount will increase nominally by 5.2% in fiscal 2023 (up 4 .6% in previous estimates as of January), 2.5% in FY 2024 (0.7% increase) and in real terms in FY 2023. It is estimated that there will be an increase of 2 .5% (up 2.1%) in fiscal 2017 and 1.5% (up 0.1%) in fiscal 2017, both above previous estimates. The main reason for this is that investment in building repair (renovation/renovation), both government and private investment, is “growing more than expected” (Kensetsu Keizai Kenkyuen). In the context of continuously high construction costs, it is likely that the movement to reconsider investment plans from new construction to renovation is accelerating.
Even when considering real value, excluding the impact of price fluctuations, total investment showed a slight increase in both FY 2013 and FY 2024, indicating a recovery trend. However, costs continue to rise and he pointed to the need to closely monitor the impact of factors such as the risk of an economic downturn abroad, the Noto Peninsula earthquake and the decision to end the government. negative interest rate policy of the Bank of Japan.
Looking at annual increases/decreases by sector, government sector investment (excluding building repairs) grew 4.3% in nominal terms in FY11 and 1.5% in FY11. 2014. In real terms, it will grow 1.2% in 2011 and 1.1% in 2014. Private residential investment will grow nominally by 0.7% in 2011 and 1.6% in 2014. 2011. In fact, it will decrease 0.4% in 2011 and increase 0.3% in 2014. Owner-occupied home construction starts in each month of fiscal year 2013 are low highest in the past 10 years and there is no prospect of a strong recovery in the future.
Private non-residential construction investment will increase by 1.2% in nominal terms in 2011 and 1.2% in 2014. In real terms, it will decrease by 1.8% in 2013 and 0.2% in 2014. % in 2014. Although office and store starts have been low in recent years, there were signs of a slight recovery in 2017.
Building repair investment will increase 20.9% in nominal terms in 2011 and 8.8% in 2011. In fact, it increased 16.8% in 2011 and 6.4% in 2014. The previous estimate was revised significantly upward based on the results of the Building Renovation and Rehabilitation Survey of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism. There has been a notable increase in the renovation of existing buildings to save energy, with renovations to create more comfortable office environments and subsidies for the construction of energy-efficient homes. More energy efficiency is likely to contribute.
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