On June 30, Mori Trust announced the results of a survey of office supply in 2022 targeting the 23 wards of Tokyo. The supply of large offices with a total floor area of 10,000 square meters or more was 490,000 square meters (610,000 square meters in 2021), the lowest level in the past 20 years. In 2023 and 2025, more than 1.3 million square meters are expected to be supplied. However, 2024, 2026 and 2027 are expected to be at a low level. By supply area, the three central wards (Chiyoda, Chuo, and Minato) accounted for more than 70%.
The supply volume survey started in 1986 was calculated by the company based on various published materials and on-site confirmation including interviews. The supply in 2022 was 490,000 square meters, the lowest in the past 20 years. 1.3 million square meters in 2023 and 1.41 million square meters in 2025.
However, based on the trends of past surveys, ▽ 2012 = 690,000 square meters ▽ 2014 = 660,000 square meters ▽ 2015 = 740,000 square meters - and it is expected that the increase will turn to decrease in the following year. The average supply from 2011 to 2027 will be 960,000 square meters, lower than the average of the past 20 years (1.11 million square meters).
By area, out of the three wards in central Tokyo, Chiyoda Ward (1.7 million square meters) tops the list. Minato Ward (1.32 million square meters) and Chuo Ward (760,000 square meters) follow. Chiyoda Ward, which had accounted for 30% of the total over the past five years, has shrunk significantly, and Minato Ward is expected to double its share (2.74 million square meters). The Daimaru Yu area (Otemachi, Marunouchi, and Yurakucho), which had the largest supply volume, will be out of the service area in five years, and will be concentrated in six districts such as Toranomon, Shinbashi, Shirokane, and Takanawa.
The supply of medium-sized offices (total of 5,000 to less than 10,000 square meters) is 109,000 square meters. Although it was lower than the previous year for three consecutive years, it turned to increase. According to the transition forecast, it is estimated that it will be 98,000 square meters in 2023 and 119,000 square meters in 2024. The average supply volume is expected to be 109,000 square meters, exceeding the average of the past 10 years (104,000 square meters).
Looking at the demand side, the occupancy rate and job offer rate for newly built large-scale offices are 80% for completion in 2022 and 50% for 2023. Regarding demand trends, he pointed out that "hybrid work, which combines real and remote work, has become part of the new work style" due to the impact of the new coronavirus. It concludes that developers are required to respond in terms of software that will lead to activation of communication.
