Construction investment in FY2022 will decrease substantially, reversing from nominal increase due to soaring prices / Construction Economic Research Institute forecast
Due to the sharp rise in prices of construction materials and fuels, the current construction investment amount has exceeded the actual amount. According to the latest estimation of construction investment forecast released by the Institute of Construction Economy and the Economic Research Council on the 6th, the total investment in 2022 is a nominal value of 3.1% increase from the previous year, and the real value excluding the influence of price fluctuations. Is reduced by 1.8%. There was a gap that reversed the increase / decrease from the previous year. It is thought that the amount of work actually undertaken is decreasing due to the decrease in the real value, and there is a possibility that a situation has arisen that does not match the skin sensation of the site.
Looking at the increase / decrease in the FY2022 construction investment forecast by field, ▽ Government investment = nominal value 1.5% increase, real value 2.4% decrease ▽ Private housing investment = 2.2% increase 3.9% Decrease ▽ Private non-residential construction investment = 9.4% increase, 3.6% increase ▽ Private building repair investment = 1.8% increase, 3.1% decrease ▽ Private civil engineering investment = 1.2% increase, 2.7% % Decrease. In both cases, a large gap was created between the nominal value and the real value.
The "construction work cost deflator" (an index showing the market price of construction work costs) used to calculate the real value has risen moderately so far. According to the figures released by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, assuming that FY15 is "100", the provisional values will be 107.9 in FY20 and 112.9 in FY21. However, the forecast for FY 2022 by the Institute of Construction and Economic Research jumps to 118.8. The sharp rise so far is unprecedented.
The impact on private investment, which has recovered from the slump in Korona-ka, seems to be great. The number of housing starts is expected to decrease 0.8% from the previous year to 85.9 million units in FY2022. It was judged that housing demand, which had once recovered, would be sluggish due to the effects of soaring materials. Of the condominiums for sale, "apartments and Nagaya" are expected to decrease by 1.5% to 102,700 units.
For private non-residential construction, the forecast for the floor area of construction starts in FY2022 is favorable, increasing 4.1% to 45.55 million square meters. Stores and factories are expected to increase by more than 10%. The number of offices with a succession of large-scale properties in FY2009 will decrease by 20.5%, but it is expected to be strong for the time being ahead of large-scale redevelopment in the Tokyo metropolitan area. However, it is necessary to pay close attention to how the prolonged rise in prices will affect the investment decisions of private companies.
