Yano Research Institute (Nakano-ku, Tokyo) announced the results of a survey on the domestic solar power generation market. The scale of solar power generation in fiscal 2023 (one year) is expected to be 5,040MW (5.04GW, AC basis = grid-connected output), and due to the reduction in the number of projects under the Feed-in-Tariff (FIT), the scale of solar power generation in fiscal 2022 (one year) is expected to be 5,823MW (5.823GW).
Trends and forecasts on the scale of domestic solar power installations
(Source: Yano Research Institute)
Among FIT projects, the decline in commercial use is notable, with certified numbers falling due to lower electricity prices and the introduction of the bidding system in 2017, and referral amounts continuing to decline from 2021 onwards. On the other hand, the emergence of PPAs (power purchase agreements), a form of business that does not rely on FIT, is increasingly expanding.
On-site PPAs, in which solar power equipment is installed on the roof or on the premises of customers, will be introduced in earnest in Japan from fiscal 2020 amid the trend of decarbonization and rising electricity costs. They continue to expand steadily and the growth rate is increasing year by year. The installed scale of non-residential/on-site PPAs in fiscal 2023 is expected to be 870MW, an estimated increase of 17.3% of the total scale.
Off-site PPAs, where solar equipment is installed at a location away from the customer’s premises, are set to be introduced in earnest from around 2022 and are set to increase in number amid growing demand for environmental value. Non-residential/off-site PPAs are expected to be installed at 445MW in FY23, accounting for an estimated 8.8% of total capacity.
The scale of commercial PPA deployment in FY2023, including on-site and off-site, will be 1,315 MW (1,315 GW) or 26.1%, exceeding 1 GW and increasing to nearly 30% of the total market.
The installed capacity of solar power in 2030 is forecast to be 6,049 MW (6,049 GW). Non-FIT business models are expanding, and in particular off-site PPAs, which tend to have large project sizes, are increasing at a rapid pace and are expected to exceed the installed capacity of on-site PPAs in FY2026. On the other hand, the installed capacity of residential and commercial FIT/FIP (Feed-in Premium) in the same fiscal year is forecast to be 850 MW, accounting for 14.1% of the total.
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