Japan’s Domestic Wind Power Market to Exceed ¥1 Trillion by 2040, Quadrupled by Offshore Growth
November 18, 2025
Japan's Wind Power Generation Market Size Forecast (FY2025-2040)
Chart Analysis
This chart forecasts the market size for wind power generation in Japan from fiscal year 2025 to 2040, with values in billions of Yen.
1. Overall Trend:
The wind power market is projected to experience very strong and steady growth throughout the forecast period, increasing approximately sixfold from 2025 to 2040.
2. Detailed Forecast Data:
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2025 (Projection): ~2,000 bn JPY
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2030 (Forecast): ~6,000 bn JPY
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2035 (Forecast): ~10,000 bn JPY
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2040 (Forecast): ~12,000 bn JPY
3. Growth Phase Analysis:
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Phase 1 (2025-2030): Rapid growth, adding ~4,000 bn JPY. This phase is likely driven by short-term renewable energy targets and the robust development of planned fixed-bottom offshore wind projects.
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Phase 2 (2030-2040): The growth rate moderates somewhat but remains very robust, adding ~6,000 bn JPY. Growth in this phase is expected to be driven by the further expansion of offshore wind and the commercial maturation of floating offshore wind technology, allowing exploitation of deeper water sites.
4. Calculation Methodology Explained:
The market size is calculated based on:
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Power Generation Forecast: Estimating the annual power generation output for each segment: offshore wind (fixed-bottom), offshore wind (floating), and onshore wind.
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Multiplied by LCOE: This power generation is then multiplied by the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) - the average cost to generate one unit of electricity over a project's lifetime. This indicates the market size reflects the total investment and operational expenditure in the wind power sector, rather than just electricity sales revenue.
5. Report Scope:
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Included: Offshore Wind (fixed-bottom & floating), Onshore Wind.
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Excluded: Medium and Small-scale Wind Power.
Conclusion:
This chart paints a picture of strong, long-term growth for Japan's wind power sector, with a major focus on the expansion of offshore wind. This growth is perfectly aligned with Japan's carbon neutrality goals and the global energy transition trend.
The Yano Research Institute (Nakano Ward, Tokyo) announced on November 14 the results of its latest survey on Japan’s domestic wind power market. The market is projected to reach ¥293.5 billion in fiscal year (FY) 2025. With fixed-bottom offshore wind farms beginning operation from FY2028, followed by floating offshore wind developments, the market is forecast to expand 4.38 times compared with FY2025, reaching ¥1.2848 trillion by FY2040.
The forecast is based on annual projections of wind power generation capacity by category—fixed-bottom offshore, floating offshore, and onshore. Each projected capacity is multiplied by the average levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), and the totals are summed to estimate overall market scale. For the three offshore areas from which Mitsubishi Corporation withdrew, the projections assume that tenders will be relaunched and operations will proceed as planned.
Onshore wind capacity continues to rise as newly built FIT-certified plants come online. Alongside the replacement of aging facilities, some smaller plants—particularly those under 4 MW—have been decommissioned after failing to meet replacement criteria.
In the offshore segment, a relatively large-scale wind farm is expected to begin operations in FY2025. Projects continue to advance based on sea-area occupancy under the Offshore Renewable Energy Act and related legislation. Major projects awarded through public tenders under the same act are expected to come online between FY2028 and FY2030, significantly increasing installed capacity. According to the Seventh Strategic Energy Plan, approved by the Cabinet in February, Japan’s wind power generation in FY2040 is projected to reach 44–96 billion kWh.
The survey excludes medium- and small-scale wind projects. The procurement phase for medium-scale wind farms certified for conversion to FIT will conclude in FY2027, leading to a decline in total installed capacity. In contrast, small-scale wind farms certified before FY2018 continue to operate, with their total installed capacity trending upward.
