Many Japanese companies pay parts to Boeing 787 etc.
Production recovery is clear with aircraft components that were sluggish under the new coronavirus. Toray, the world leader in carbon fiber, will resume shipping to aircraft at its main US plant by the end of this year. Teijin and IHI will increase material production by 20-40% from the previous term this term. Due to soaring fuel prices and environmental regulations, there is a strong need for lightweight materials. The number of air passengers is expected to exceed that of Corona in 2024, but there is a risk of mutations, and diversification of applications will be important.
Toray expects CFRP demand to return in the latter half of 2022 (photo is carbon fiber)
Toray is the main carbon fiber plant in South Carolina, USA, and plans to resume shipping to aircraft by the end of the year. It will be processed into carbon fiber composite material (CFRP) and used for the main wings and fuselage of Boeing's medium-sized aircraft "787".
Aim in front of the corona
Toray has a total of three carbon fiber bases for aircraft in the United States. The South Carolina factory is the core base for integrated production from raw yarn manufacturing to CFRP processing. Business profit (international accounting standards) of the CFRP business for the fiscal year ended March 2020 accounted for 20% of the total, but demand dropped sharply in Corona. The factory shut down in the summer of 20.
The factory was restarted for hydrogen tanks in cars where demand is growing. Production for aircraft will be resumed and expanded by the end of the year. Toray expects to receive orders from major parts manufacturers by the end of July, and will return to a three-base system. Demand is expected to be at the level before Corona in the fiscal year ending March 2013.
New orders for Boeing and European Airbus in 2009 were about three times that of 20 years. Corona returned to a level of less than 90% in 2018, which was not affected by the suspension of operations of the Boeing small aircraft "737MAX". With the resumption of shipment of the "737MAX", the recovery of small aircraft is quick. Crude oil prices have risen due to the crisis in Ukraine, and aviation fuel has also soared. President Akihiro Hikaku said, "I hear from airlines that they can't make a profit unless they have fuel-efficient aircraft," and they are also aiming for weight reduction needs.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) predicts that the number of global air passengers in 2012 will be 4 billion, 3% higher than in 19 before Corona. Toray's CFRP business posted a loss of 7.5 billion yen in FY03 / 21. In the fiscal year ended March 31, 2010, it returned to a surplus of 1.6 billion yen, but it is less than 10% of the amount before Corona.
For wind power and vehicles, expanding applications
However, if the production of the "787" returns to the monthly production of 14 aircraft before Corona, "the business profit of the CFRP business will be about 40 billion yen" (President Nikkaku). Although it is not possible to make a simple comparison due to changes in accounting standards, it exceeds the record high for the business in the fiscal year ending March 2016 (operating income of 36.1 billion yen).
The background is the change in the profit structure in Corona. Aircraft sales accounted for 45% of sales in this business in the fiscal year ended March 2008, but fell to 20% in the fiscal year ended March 2010. On the other hand, sales for general industrial applications such as those for wind power generation wings were 144.7 billion yen in the fiscal year ended March 2010, an increase of 30% from the fiscal year ended March 2008. By decarbonizing, we will focus on wind power generation and sales channels to hydrogen pressure vessels.
Sports applications also increased by 60%. In preparation for the recovery of aircraft demand, we will consider expanding CFRP production facilities in Japan and overseas by 2012.
Teijin to increase production
Teijin will also produce carbon fiber and the same materials used in airplanes, which will increase by 20% in the fiscal year ending March 2011 compared to the fiscal year ending March 2010. It plans to increase it by 40% in the fiscal year ending March 2012 and return it to the level before Corona. "The policy is to increase the utilization rate at factories in Japan and Germany," the company said.
Toho Zinc will increase production of "electrolytic iron" with a 70% share of the world market. A material that enhances the durability of aircraft landing gear and engine parts. In the fiscal year ending March 2011, production will increase by 20% from the previous fiscal year and return to the level before Corona. Expansion of shipments to vehicles will be increased by 70% in the fiscal year ending March 2012.
The number of aircraft parts is said to be 1 million, and Boeing's supply chain is said to be 17,000 companies worldwide. Japanese companies such as Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Kawasaki Heavy Industries occupy a 35% share in the manufacture of the main wings and fuselage of the "787". The benefits of a recovery in demand are great.
For the engine itself, IHI plans to increase orders from Airbus by 36% from the previous fiscal year, which is 70% of the sales volume before Corona. Regarding engine spare parts, President Hiroshi Ide believes that "demand will return sharply" due to trends in Europe and the United States. In this term, 80% of the production system before Corona will be set up, and in the term ending March 2013, the production system before Corona will be set up.
Tightening CO2 regulations in 2015, a business opportunity to improve fuel efficiency
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) predicts that air traffic demand in 2010 will remain at about 60% of the level in 2019, and that it will recover to before Corona in 24 years. However, aviation demand will change significantly depending on new variants and infection status.
While the future is difficult to forecast, the business opportunity is to respond to the environment. In 2009, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) introduced a rule that airline companies should not increase carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from 2019. Currently, each country is voluntarily responding, but the policy is to make it mandatory in 2015.
Improving fuel efficiency and reducing the weight of the aircraft are more important for reducing emissions. Carbon fiber weighs a quarter of iron if it has the same strength. Boeing's "787" uses a lot of light carbon fiber and has improved fuel efficiency by 20% compared to the conventional model. As environmental regulations become stronger, the demand for CFRP instead of metal will increase.
Boeing estimates that the number of aircraft operating in the world will increase by 90% in 1940 compared to 2019. There is also the development of supersonic passenger planes and electric aircraft. While promoting the diversification of applications for lightweight aircraft components under the corona, it is essential to put more lightweight and durable components into practical use. In order for the aviation-related business to achieve higher profits than before Corona, strengthening research and development will be an issue. (Yasuto Kurose, Natsumi Kawasaki, Takuma Nagamori)
