Hydrogen Agenda at COP30 Belém and Implications for Vietnam
(Opportunities – Risks – Strategic Directions)
Date: 2025 November 21
Event: COP30 – Belém, Brazil
Focus: Hydrogen, clean fuels, renewable energy finance, natural hydrogen, industrial decarbonisation.
I. Global Context: Hydrogen Becomes a Core Pillar of COP30
Hydrogen emerged as one of the central themes at COP30, reflecting its rising importance in decarbonising hard-to-abate sectors and accelerating energy transition. Three key global trends defined the hydrogen agenda in Belém:
1. Broader international recognition of hydrogen — including natural hydrogen
Brazil, the host of COP30, became the first major economy to officially classify geologic (natural) hydrogen as a form of “renewable hydrogen” in its new Low-Carbon Hydrogen Law.
This sets a precedent for developing countries—Vietnam included—to explore their own geological potential.
2. Strong presence of high-level hydrogen dialogues
UNIDO, IPHE, IRENA, CEM, and leading industry coalitions organised sessions such as:
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High-Level Dialogue: Accelerating Green Hydrogen in Developing Markets
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Auctions for Clean Hydrogen Financing
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Belém 4X Pledge on Sustainable Fuels
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Ministerial Roundtable on Green Industrialisation
These discussions provided the global policy, financial, and technological frameworks that developing countries can adopt.
3. Hydrogen positioned as the solution for hard-to-abate industries
Priority sectors highlighted at COP30:
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green steel
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green ammonia and fertilisers
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refining and petrochemicals
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maritime and aviation fuels
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flexible power generation using hydrogen/ammonia
II. Opportunities for Vietnam from the Hydrogen Agenda at COP30
1. Major opportunities to mobilise large-scale international climate finance
COP30 emphasised instruments such as:
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hydrogen auctions
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carbon contracts for difference (CCfDs)
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blended finance instruments
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climate funds for hydrogen and sustainable fuels
Given Vietnam’s projected electricity demand growth of 10–12% per year, the country is well-positioned to attract:
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concessional capital
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project preparation support
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international equity investments
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financing for hydrogen–ammonia hubs and energy storage systems
Participation in the Belém 4X Pledge could also provide opportunities in maritime and aviation fuels.
2. Potential for exploration of natural hydrogen resources
Brazil’s recognition of natural hydrogen opens a pathway for countries with similar geological conditions to begin surveying for underground hydrogen.
Vietnam has geological features that suggest potential:
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deep basement rocks
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active tectonic structures
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magmatic history in regions such as the Central Highlands, Northeast, and Northwest
Vietnam could collaborate with Brazil, France, Japan, and the US to assess natural hydrogen prospects and pilot small-scale extraction technologies.
3. Attracting FDI for hydrogen, ammonia, and synthetic fuels
Global investors at COP30 expressed strong interest in:
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coastal hydrogen hubs (Bà Rịa–Vũng Tàu, Ninh Thuận, Bình Thuận, Cà Mau)
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green ammonia for export
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e-fuels for aviation
With COP30 aligning global demand for green industrial products—especially green steel, fertilisers, and SAF—Vietnam can position itself as a regional production centre in ASEAN.
4. Strong alignment with Vietnam’s ongoing economic reforms
Vietnam is undergoing a major national transformation:
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restructuring and merging provinces into 34 larger administrative units
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strengthening innovation, science and technology
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prioritising clean energy and green industrialisation
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promoting large-scale private sector investment
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accelerating economic modernisation
These reforms create an enabling environment for hydrogen development and international partnerships.
5. Opportunity for Vietnam to host COP31 or COP32
Hosting COP would:
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solidify Vietnam’s climate leadership
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unlock large waves of clean energy FDI
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fast-track hydrogen hubs and the national hydrogen strategy
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elevate Vietnam’s global standing in the green transition
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catalyse domestic policies on green finance, carbon markets, and clean fuels
III. Key Risks for Vietnam in Scaling Hydrogen Post-COP30
1. Market (offtake) risk
Vietnam’s domestic hydrogen demand is still limited.
Without guaranteed buyers, projects struggle to reach FID.
→ Must prioritise demand creation in:
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steel
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fertilisers
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chemicals
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export-grade ammonia
2. Cost and infrastructure risk
Challenges include:
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high cost of electrolysers
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weak hydrogen-ready infrastructure
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limited grid capacity in high-renewable regions
3. Policy and regulatory gaps
Vietnam lacks:
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hydrogen standards and certification
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domestic pricing mechanisms
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DPPA mechanisms necessary for large RE-to-H₂ projects
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hydrogen auction schemes
4. Competitive pressure from global hydrogen leaders
Countries like the US, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Australia offer:
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cheap land
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very low renewable energy costs
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billions in subsidies
Vietnam must therefore pursue targeted market niches.
IV. Strategic Directions for Vietnam after COP30
1. Adopt a National Hydrogen Strategy (2025–2035)
The strategy should cover:
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production targets
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safety and transport standards
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certification system aligned with EU/Japan
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competitive mechanisms (CCfD, auctions)
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export roadmap for ammonia and e-fuels
2. Develop 3–4 Hydrogen Hubs
Recommended hubs:
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Phú Mỹ – Vũng Tàu: refining, petrochemicals, export
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Ninh Thuận – Bình Thuận: solar–wind hydrogen
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Cà Mau – Kiên Giang: LNG–wind–biomass hybrid hydrogen
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Hải Phòng – Quảng Ninh: steel, ports, maritime fuels
3. Accelerate natural hydrogen exploration
Actions:
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geological surveys
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pilot drilling
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partnerships with Brazil, France, Japan
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establishing Vietnam’s first natural hydrogen test wells
4. Establish financial mechanisms for hydrogen
Including:
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clean hydrogen auctions (Brazilian/German model)
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CCfD support for initial projects
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tax incentives for electrolysers and ammonia plants
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carbon credits for low-emission hydrogen
5. Design “Flagship Hydrogen Projects”
Example pilots:
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100–200 MW green hydrogen plant
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green ammonia export plant
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SAF production facility
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100,000 t/yr green steel pilot
6. Advance diplomatic proposal to host COP31 or COP32
This would:
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accelerate national energy transition
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attract global attention and capital
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boost Vietnam’s hydrogen sector development
V. Conclusion
COP30 elevated hydrogen from an emerging solution to a central pillar of global climate action. Key outcomes relevant to Vietnam include:
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recognition of natural hydrogen
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new global financing frameworks
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stronger industrial decarbonisation pathways
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the Belém 4X Pledge on sustainable fuels
For Vietnam, the period 2025–2035 represents a critical window to:
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scale hydrogen and clean fuels
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attract global investment
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modernise its energy system
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integrate deeper into global low-carbon value chains
With its ongoing economic restructuring, commitment to innovation, and rapidly expanding clean energy sector, Vietnam is well-positioned to become a regional leader in hydrogen within ASEAN—and potentially host a future COP meeting to amplify its role in global climate action.
