The Hydrogen Industry Doesn’t Have a Production Problem. It Has an Offtake Problem
Why Linking Buyers and Sellers Is Now the Bottleneck
Despite rapid advances in hydrogen production technology, the industry faces a persistent challenge: offtake, not production. Electrolysers are capable of scaling, and solar pipelines are abundant. Yet developers across MENA, India, Australia, Europe, and Asia continue to repeat the same caution:
“Without bankable offtake agreements, our project will not secure financing.”
This week highlights how three regions are tackling this bottleneck differently, revealing a global pattern.
1) Europe: Building a Hydrogen “Matchmaking Engine”
On 12 November 2025, the European Union launched its first Hydrogen Mechanism call, aiming to connect global hydrogen suppliers with EU industrial buyers.
Why it matters:
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Reduces demand risk by providing volume signals for hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol.
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Opens direct access for exporters from MENA, India, and Australia.
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Supports infrastructure, including import terminals, storage facilities, and hydrogen-ready pipelines.
The question: Will a centralized buyer-seller platform unlock scale, or does Europe still require stronger carbon pricing to incentivize industrial hydrogen demand?
2) India: Fertiliser Becomes the First Real Offtaker
On 13 November 2025, Coromandel Fertilisers announced a ₹2,000 crore green ammonia + fertiliser complex, aiming to integrate hydrogen directly into domestic chemical production.
Why it matters:
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Fertiliser plants consume ammonia daily, making them ideal early adopters of green hydrogen.
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Reduces dependence on imported fossil ammonia.
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Creates domestic market opportunities for Indian electrolyser OEMs, EPCs, and BOP suppliers.
The question: Should India prioritize fertiliser and chemicals as first domestic customers before developing export-oriented hydrogen hubs for shipping and energy security?
3) China: Solving Offtake Through Industrial Integration
On 13 November 2025, Sinopec awarded LONGi the Ordos tender, producing 30,000 tonnes of green hydrogen per year.
Why it matters:
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Captive industrial demand eliminates offtake uncertainty.
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Drives demand for large alkaline systems, compressors, and power electronics.
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Builds on the multi-billion-yuan Kuqa project, helping establish cost benchmarks for domestic green hydrogen production.
The question: Is China pushing hydrogen toward commodity status, or primarily using scale to enable green steel, chemicals, and other energy-intensive industries?
Global Reality: Offtake Is Regional, Not Global
Hydrogen production will scale everywhere, but demand and offtake will be regionally constrained. Currently, global trends are forming three main export corridors:
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MENA & North Africa → Europe: leveraging lowest-cost solar energy and EU industrial demand.
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Australia → Japan, Korea & ASEAN: driven by energy security and proximity.
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LATAM → niche, premium buyers: smaller, specialized markets.
Meanwhile, India and China are expected to consume most hydrogen domestically, particularly for fertilisers, chemicals, and heavy industry.
The implication: while production will be abundant, bankable offtake contracts will dictate where hydrogen projects are viable, and which regions see accelerated development.
Implications for OEMs, EPCs, BOP Suppliers, and Developers
Companies seeking to compete in the hydrogen market must be visible where buyers meet suppliers and influence procurement decisions for 2025–2030. Key platforms include:
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World Future Energy Summit (WFES), Abu Dhabi
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World Hydrogen Summit & Exhibition, Rotterdam
On these floors, suppliers can:
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Show technical capability
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Demonstrate reliability
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Build trust with industrial buyers
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Secure long-term contracts
The takeaway: even as electrolyser capacity grows and renewable energy pipelines expand, offtake remains the rate-limiting step in scaling green hydrogen globally.
