Unmanned driving, accelerating the development race Emerging forces take the lead in practical use
The development of "Level 4", which completely automates driving under certain conditions, is intensifying around the world. In Japan, emerging companies such as SoftBank subsidiary BOLDLY (Baudry, Tokyo/Minato) and Tier IV (Nagoya City) are conducting demonstration tests of autonomous driving. Overseas, IT (information technology) companies in China and the United States are enthusiastic. There is a problem in securing profitability, and major domestic automakers are cautious about commercialization, and there is a difference in their enthusiasm.
The government has set a goal of introducing Level 4 services in 40 regions by 2025 and more than 100 regions by 2030. CEO Yuki Saji is forward-looking, saying, "We plan to do that much of a project on our own."
In February 2010, Tier IV conducted a demonstration test of an autonomous bus at Narita Airport with NTT East Japan, KDDI, and others. It connects terminals and remotely monitors high-definition images sent in almost real time from in-vehicle cameras in the airport by the high-speed communication standard "5G" to verify transmission technology and safety.
Autonomous driving development is progressing around the world, mainly by start-up companies. WeRide AI, which is funded by a consortium of Nissan Motor, France's Renault, and Mitsubishi Motors, has begun testing unmanned autonomous driving on public roads in China. In the United States, Alphabet's Waymo and General Motors (GM)'s GM Cruise are leading the way.
Other industries will also participate. In August 2010, Baidu, a major IT company in China, became the first company in China to obtain a license to operate completely unmanned, self-driving taxis, and started services in two cities. Until now, the driver and passenger seats have been assigned to observers.
However, the practical use of Level 4 is not straightforward. Waymo has been ahead of the rest of the world in developing it since around 2010. Initially, the goal was to start mass production in 2017, but it has not reached full-scale mass production yet.
Ford Motor Co. and Volkswagen Corp. have liquidated U.S. self-driving startup ArgoAI on the 26th. Ford CEO Jim Farley said, "Fully profitable autonomous vehicles are a long way off." When Ford invested in Argo AI in 2017, it laid out a blueprint for widespread adoption of Level 4 technology by 2021.
The background is that the technical difficulty is high and the profitability is not visible. For example, Waymo's development vehicle is equipped with expensive obstacle detection sensors and a large number of cameras. We also need high-performance computers to process the data. It will take some time before the vehicle price that can be purchased by general consumers will drop below 5 million yen.
Domestic automakers, which specialize in consumer products, are cautious about putting Level 4 technology into practical use. Toyota Motor and Nissan Motor are conducting Level 4 research, but they have not indicated when they will start selling vehicles or servicing them. Domestic major companies have not participated in Level 4 projects implemented by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.
When Level 4 is realized, the conventional business model of selling cars and receiving compensation will change completely. The reason why IT companies are all aiming to enter the market is that they anticipate that new mobility service businesses such as ride-sharing will play a leading role. By the time level 4 vehicles are put into practical use, the market trend may be set.
