Galapagos Japan's light car will be destroyed ... About 600,000 yen Chinese EV "Hongkou MINI EV" Impact of landing in Japan
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Nissan "Sakura" - Photo provided by Nissan
How will the automobile market change with the spread of EVs? Yoshihisa Murasawa, a former specially appointed professor at the University of Tokyo, said, "If the 'Hiromitsu MINI EV' makes its way to Japan, the light car market will be greatly affected. Japanese manufacturers should put more effort into developing low-cost EVs." -.
[Photo] Click here for images of the latest EV such as Wuling "Hiroko MINI EV"
■ EV sales are increasing rapidly
The conversion of automobiles to EVs is accelerating rapidly. In September 2022, global monthly sales of plug-in vehicles (EV + PHV) surpassed 1 million units for the first time (according to CleanTechnica).
This means that the world has overcome a major barrier to moving towards 100% EVs in the future.
For the full year, EV sales in 2022 are expected to reach about 10 million units. That's a pretty big number, accounting for about 10% of new car sales worldwide.
In 2021, it will be about 6.6 million units (6.6% share of new car sales), so you can see that it is growing rapidly.
Moreover, it is expected that EV sales will reach 15 million units (15%) by 2023.
Japan has completely fallen behind in these rapid changes in the world. The number of new cars sold in Japan in 2021 was 4,448,288 units, including light cars. Of these, only 47,000 (1.1%) are plug-in vehicles (EV+PHV). It is by far the lowest among major countries.
■ Will the Nissan "Sakura" be a detonator?
A ray of hope has come into view amidst the slow progress of EVs in Japan. That is the light standard EV “Sakura” jointly developed by Nissan and Mitsubishi and released in June 2022 (“eK Cross EV” under the Mitsubishi brand).
Sales of the "Sakura" are increasing with the "price below 2 million yen if subsidies are used" and the "powerful performance that surpasses the light" as weapons.
The cumulative sales volume from June to September 2022 was 12,942 units (data: All Japan Light Motor Vehicle Association). In August, it was ranked in the top 10 sales ranking of mini vehicles.
This is a pleasing result from the perspective of the shift to EVs in Japan.
■ “Cheap Chinese EV” finally landed in Japan
However, the joy was short-lived when news came that the "Black Ship" was coming from China to threaten the "Sakura".
That is the Wuling "Hongguang MINI EV" (Wuling Hongwan Mini EV).
Although it sells at an ultra-low price starting at 600,000 yen, this car is now aiming to enter the Japanese market.
"Hongkou MINI EV" was released in China in July 2020. The manufacturer is a company called SAIC-GM-Wuling Motor (abbreviation: SGMW).
It is a joint venture between SAIC (Shanghai Automobile Group), GM, and Wuling (Luzhou Wuling Automobile Co., Ltd.) (Luzhou Wuling Automobile Co., Ltd. has recently changed its name to Guangxi Automobile Group Co., Ltd.).
■ It is almost a light car in terms of size
Then what kind of car is the "Hiromitsu MINI EV"?
The body size of the "Hiroko MINI EV" is small with a total length of 2917mm, a total width of 1493mm and a total height of 1621mm.
The Japanese light standard is 3400mm in length, 1480mm in width and 2000mm in height.
"Hirokou MINI EV" is supposed to carry up to 4 people including the back seats. However, if it is about this size, it may be common to fold the back seat and use it as a trunk space, so that it can be used by two people or less.
■ The cheapest grade is about 640,000 yen
"Hirokou MINI EV" comes in three grades. The motor is 20 kW (27.2 horsepower) common to all grades. With a maximum speed of 100km/h, it can also run on highways.
Battery size is 9.3 kWh. The cruising range is 120km according to Chinese standards, which is close to NEDC (New European Driving Cycle Standards) (approximately 90km according to EPA standards: author's estimate).
The cheapest grade sells for 32,800 yuan in China. Calculated at the rate as of November 16 (1 yuan = 19.75 yen), the price is as low as 647,800 yen in Japanese yen.
The middle grade has the same battery capacity and cruising range, but costs 38,800 yuan (766,300 yen). The high-end grade with air conditioning is 44,800 yuan (884,800 yen), has a battery capacity of 13.8 kWn, and has a cruising range of 170 km (128 km).
■ The third largest sales volume in the world after Tesla
The author has been paying attention to this car since its release, and introduced it as "an EV that costs less than 500,000 yen" in Chapter 2 of "Nihonsha Defeat" (President Publishing).
According to data from CleanTechnica, the sales volume of the "Hiroko MINI EV" from January to September 2022 is 316,000 units. This is a good result as the third place in the world for plug-in vehicles.
By the way, during the same period, Tesla "Model Y" ranked first and Tesla "Model 3" ranked second, but in the Chinese market alone, "Hongguang MINI EV" occupies the first place.
The price of the "Hiroko MINI EV" has increased by more than 30% when converted to yen due to the depreciation of the yen. Therefore, although it is not currently possible to go as far as "less than 500,000 yen", even the highest grade is in the 800,000 yen range, which is surprisingly cheap for an EV.
The reason why the "Hiroko MINI EV" can be sold at such a low price is that the design is thoroughly simplified and the use of general-purpose electronic components contributes.
Also, it doesn't support quick charging, so that's probably one of the reasons for the low price.
This "Hiromitsu MINI EV" has been making noise as it may finally land in Japan.
The Nihon Keizai Shimbun reports that SAIC-GM-Wuling Motors has begun researching the Japanese market in an article titled "China's cheap EV surveys the Japanese market; uses for nursing care vehicles, etc."
It is said that the procedure for obtaining type approval has already begun in Japan, and if the reports are true, the "Hiromitsu MINI EV" will land in Japan as early as the spring of 2023.
However, as of November 11, 2022, when this article is being written, the contracted company is still investigating the entry of the "Hiroko MINI EV" into Japan, and it has not been decided yet.
■Can Nissan "Sakura" win?
If the "Hiromitsu MINI EV" really enters the market, will the Nissan "Sakura" win?
"What about performance?"
"Sakura" has a motor output of 47 kW and a battery capacity of 20 kWh.
The cruising range is 180km according to WLTC standards (approximately 145km according to EPA standards: author's estimate).
Prices start at 2.4 million yen for the X grade. If the national subsidy of 550,000 yen is used, it will be 1,850,000 yen.
Comparing the inexpensive grade of the Hiroko MINI EV with the X grade of the Sakura, the Hiroko MINI EV has about 40% of the horsepower of the Sakura, and has a cruising range (EPA standard) of 3/3 of that of the Sakura. 2. The price is about 1/4 of "Sakura" (assuming that the price of "Hiroko MINI EV" in Japan is rumored to be 650,000 yen).
It should be noted that the "Hiromitsu MINI EV" and the "Sakura" are not in full-scale competition due to the large difference in power performance.
The "Sakura" has an output of 47 kW and can easily run on Japanese highways. In addition, the torque of 195Nm, which is equivalent to that of a 2000cc engine, allows you to run briskly even in the city.
On the other hand, the maximum torque of the "Hiroko MINI EV" is 85Nm.
In this way, the "Sakura" greatly surpasses the "Hiromitsu MINI EV" in terms of specifications.
Therefore, performance-oriented users will definitely choose "Sakura".
On the other hand, there are price-oriented users who do not need such specs. Users who mainly travel short distances and want to be able to use it as a substitute for clogs will probably choose the cheaper “Hiroko MINI EV”.
Also, in addition to "geta replacement", the "Hirokou MINI EV" is likely to be used for delivery in the city.
If the "Hiromitsu MINI EV" lands in Japan, a considerable number of users will flow from "Sakura" to "Hiromitsu MINI EV".
■ The sanctuary of light vehicles will collapse
The impact of the "Hirokou MINI EV" landing in Japan is not limited to the likely erosion of the "Sakura" market.
why. This is because it may be the trigger for the collapse of the category of “light cars” unique to Japan.
Although the "Hiromitsu MINI EV" is inferior to the "Sakura", its driving performance is by no means low.
For example, the gasoline-powered Honda "N BOX" (naturally aspirated engine) has a torque of 65Nm, so the "Hiroko Mini EV" with a maximum torque of 85Nm should be better in town.
As a result, the "Hiromitsu MINI EV" will likely erode the market for gasoline-powered mini vehicles.
"What will happen as a result?"
The "light" sanctuary (non-tariff barrier) that has protected the Japanese automobile market until now will collapse.
However, the landing of the "Hiromitsu MINI EV" is not all about disadvantages.
"Hirokou MINI EV" is a big threat for manufacturers, but there are many benefits for users. The popularization of EVs, which are cheap and can be used sufficiently in terms of performance, will expand the options for users.
■ A chance to change "Hiroko MINI EV"
In this way, the "Hirokou MINI EV" will pose a great threat to Japanese manufacturers.
However, what Japanese manufacturers should do is not simply to view the "Hiromitsu MINI EV" as an enemy.
The success of the "Hiroko MINI EV" should serve as a reference when developing compact, low-cost EVs.
In addition to the "Hirokou MINI EV," the development of low-cost EVs is progressing around the world. In China, Dongfeng Motor Group has already launched the same-class Scenic MINI EV.
Also, in Sri Lanka, Ideal Motors has announced the country's first electric vehicle "Ideal Moksha". It is said to be capable of driving up to 200km on a single charge with a household charger, and can carry four people.
In the future, small and cheap EVs will emerge one after another from Asia, Africa, etc., and the market will expand at once.
In response, it is clear what Japanese car manufacturers should do.
The "Hiromitsu MINI EV" should be seen as a "good black ship" that will provide an opportunity for Japanese cars to change, and more compact, low-priced EVs that are not bound by the "light" framework should be released to the world.
The development of such a compact, low-cost EV will be a great reference for the creation of a standard-size EV.
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Yoshihisa Murasawa
Former University of Tokyo Specially Appointed Professor, Environmental Management Consultant
Born in Tokushima Prefecture in 1948. He graduated from the Faculty of Engineering, the University of Tokyo, and completed the Graduate School of Engineering, the University of Tokyo (major in information engineering). He has an MBA from Stanford University Graduate School of Business. After that, he joined Bain & Company, a major US consulting firm. After serving as the Japan representative of Booz Allen & Hamilton, he served as vice president of Goldman Sachs Securities (in charge of M&A) and the Japan representative of The Monitor Company. From 2005 to 2010 he was a specially appointed professor at the University of Tokyo. From 2010 to 2013 he was Advisor to the President's Office of the University of Tokyo. From 2013 to March 2016 he is a visiting professor at the Graduate School of Ritsumeikan University. His publications include "Illustrated EV Revolution" (Mainichi Shimbun Publishing), "How to Win the Japanese Economy: Solar Energy Revolution" (Bunshun Shinsho), "Electric Vehicles" (Chikuma Primer Shinsho), and "A Book that Understands Global Warming in a Handy Way." (Kanki Publishing) and many others.
